RESULT

Well, the Rhondda still has the biggest Labour Assembly vote; it now has the highest Labour share of the vote; and the swing against us was one of the lowest in Wales.

Rhondda

LAB HOLD

CANDIDATES
Name	Party	Votes	%	+/- %
Leighton Andrews	LAB	12,875	58.2	-3.4
Jill Evans	PC	6,660	30.1	+3.1
Karen Roberts	LD	1,441	6.5	+3.6
Howard Parsons	CON	1,131	5.1	+2.9
Majority		6,215	28.1
Turnout		22,107	42.1	-3.5

Good luck to all Labour candidates

The weather is good and the Labour vote is there. Let's get our vote out!

Labour vote still solid

Well, the Labour vote still seems solid here. This week we have canvassed a lot of streets where we have accurate data from 2003, and it seems as good now as it was then.

Cheryl the peril(2)

Well, we know where she went now. We were in the same place today. Not sure what the point of it was from her position.

Opinion Polls

I have refrained from commenting on the Beaufort opinion poll for the Western Mail and the recall poll for ITV. The latter I am very sceptical about: 750 people were 'recalled', meaning that less than 500 probably gave a definite party view. I think that is a dangerously low number for a poll in Wales.

The Western Mail poll had these figures for the constituency seats:

Labour 36

Plaid 26

Con 19

LD 13



Now, interestingly, here is what the final opinion poll recorded in 2003*:

Labour: 39

Plaid 26

Con 16

LD 13



And here was the final result:

Lab 40

Plaid 21.2

Con 19.9

LD 14.1



In other words, the final opinion poll in 2003 over-stated the Plaid figure significantly, under-stated the Conservative figure significantly, and mildly understated Labour and the LDs. I won't comment on the Labour vote, because people would expect me to boost us. But I suspect myself that as in 2003, the Plaid figure has been over-stated and the Conservative figure is under-stated in the Western Mail poll.

So, it's all to play for and every vote counts.

*Recorded in Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully, 'Coming home to Labour? The 2003 Welsh Assembly Election', Institute of Welsh Politics, paper presented to the 203 Annual Conference of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties specialist group of the Political Studies Association in Cardiff, 12-14 September 2003.

Echo Feature

The Echo's feature on the Rhondda is here.

Erthygl diddorol

Mae Vaughan Roderick wedi ysgrifennu erthygl ar ei 'flog am yr etholiad Gynulliad Rhondda.

Gallwch chi ei weld yma

(Vaughan Roderick has written an article on the Rhondda Assembly election on his blog. You can find it here.)

Bingo Broadcasting Corporation

As an antidote to the BBC Wales's dumbed-down election bingo

I am offering an alternative 'spot-the BBC cliche' contest.

Here are the phrases you are likely to hear in the BBC's election coverage, and what they really mean:

'BBC Wales understands' = 'we asked a bloke if he would say something to give us a headline, and promised him anonymity if he did so'.

'Labour has claimed' = 'Labour has something to be proud of, but we're not going to admit it'

'Conservatives have promised' = 'they're not Labour so we won't undermine their claim by qualifying it'

'The charity states' = 'charities are nice people so it must be true and we won't challenge them about it'

'With polling day just a few days away all of the main parties are focusing on some of the main issues' = 'we haven't got a clue what's the important issue today, and ITV hasn't done a poll we can report on, and no-one is visiting from London, and Vaughan's got the day off'

All of the above can be found in current BBC Wales stories on their election website or on BBC Wales news bulletins.

More to come.

Cheryl the Peril

Apparently Tory Shadow Secetary Cheryl Gillan is coming to the Rhondda tomorrow.

Funny, I thought the Tories were meant to be running a targeted campaign?

BBC Baloney

In case there is any doubt, there is nothing in the BBC story that Welsh Labour is contemplating a deal with Plaid after May 3rd.

Rhodri has put out this statement this morning:

This story is rubbish from start to finish. A formal complaint is being
made to BBC Wales about their decision to run such a story at such a
critical point in the election, despite the story being comprehensively
denied by Welsh Labour official sources.

Neither I nor anyone else acting with my authority has been engaged in any
such considerations or discussions. The obsession of the media and the
minor parties is with coalition speculation. As previously stated on scores
of occasions, Welsh Labour is aiming to form a government based on a
mandate from the people of Wales.

The key dividing line in this election is that the other parties can only
form a coalition government. Welsh Labour can form a government based on a
proper mandate from the people of Wales. That is what we are seeking. We
are certainly not going to be knocked of course by baseless media
tittle-tattle.

In other words, the BBC may have found someone in the Labour Party to say what the BBC is reporting - but they are certainly not anyone with any authority to say anything about Welsh Labour strategy pre- or post-election. There are no deals. The choice at this election is Welsh Labour or a Tory-led coalition.

Update: Peter Hain's take on this is on his blog.

Violence on trains

The Echo had this depressing splash yesterday about the behaviour of gangs of yobs at Ystrad Rhondda station who prevented a train leaving the station at the end of March. I have known about this for a couple of weeks -Arriva have sent me footage of the incident. Rightly we now have legislation in place which means that attacks on railway workers are treated the same as attacks on emergency services workers.

I have spent a lot of my time over the past couple of years campaigning for better train services for my constituents. Labour's Assembly Government has invested additional money in recruiting more British Transport Police, some of whom cover the Valleys Lines from Pontypridd. But services will suffer if staff are unwilling to operate trains at certain times of day or at certain stations. Ystrad Rhondda station has seen problems from some time, and these are not just related to the trains but also to the area round the station. It will require a concerted police presence for some time and I hope that those involved in the incidents get properly punished.

Tories fail to turn up again!

There was an interesting hustings for the arts and the creative industries at the University of Glamorgan last night organised by Professor Hamish Fife, and attended by some interesting people such as the novelist Des Barry and playwright Gareth Miles, as well as people from the NUJ, community arts, and local government.

Des has a new publication out - unfortunately the launch date is the evening of May 3rd so I don't think I'll be able to get to that!

For the second time in a week the Tories failed to show up to a hustings event I've attended.

Let it rain

Well,the rain came on time for the plants we put in on Sunday. And how it rained all night here in Llwynypia. It also seemed to encourage the noisiest dawn chorus I've heard for a while. Impossible to sleep during that, so at the computer early today.

The sunniest campaign

I remember canvassing in the sun in 2003, but it wasn't as sustained as this. Time then to mow the lawn and put some plants in the rockery. But if you want gardening talk, you're better off with this bloke.

I also raised a glass of beer for Rhondda MP Chris Bryant who was running the London marathon today.

AM Ratings

What, only bumptious? I must try harder!

Meanwhile, the Rhondda Leader looks at the local campaign here.

Tommy Farr - the musical

The Western Mail today has a two-page spread on Mal Pope's musical about Rhondda boxer Tommy Farr which debuts next week in Swansea. This year is the 70th anniversary of Farr's fight with Joe Louis in New York.

Good Morning Wales at it again

Speaking last week at the Cyfrwng conference, I said that Good Morning Wales on BBC Radio Wales had a default narrative which went something like this: here's a problem; it'll cost money to solve it; therefore the government should spend money on it.

So, here we go: today's example of the Good Morning Wales default narrative is:

- Welsh Labour has set a target to eradicate child poverty in Wales

- But there's a problem. Barnardo's Cymru says the Assembly Government can't do it on its own

- It'll cost money

- the UK Government should spend more money on it.

There's another BBC Wales default narrative as well. It goes like this:

- Here's a problem

- Here's someone with a pet solution

- This is easy to solve, if only those fools down Cardiff bay would get on with it.

There is never a context with BBC Wales: that not all problems are simple to resolve; that policy proposals aren't necessarily levers that lead to automatic actions; that choices have to be made over spending patterns; that if you spend money on one thing, you don't have money to spend on others.

Nor does BBC Wales ever challenge the interests of professional bodies arguing for more money for their members/specialism, which too often may mean money being switched from other objectives - for example, fighting child poverty.

Even the Lib Dems say our vote is holding

My experience and that of Labour candidates and AMs I have spoken to across Wales is that our core vote is holding up well.

Even a Lib Dem AM has this to say about the Labour vote:

my experience on the doorstep is that their core vote remains fairly solid and that they will do better here than across the border.

Tories snub Welsh business

Jeff Cuthbert Am and I represented Welsh Labour at the CBI breakfast hustings this morning in Cardiff. The Lib Dems had two representatives and so did Plaid. The Tories didn't turn up, which was embarrassing for the CBI who were expecting them.

We keep getting lectured by the Tories in the Assembly about the needs of Welsh business, particularly on the Enterprise Committee which deals with economic development. But when business puts the questions, the Tories don't turn up. Perhaps they think they can take the CBI for granted?

Brian lands a punch

It was good to see Health Minister Dr Brian Gibbons tackling Plaid's Health Spokesperson Helen Mary Jones on The Politics Show about the scare-stories told by Rhondda Plaid Cymru that Labour was threatening to close the Royal Glamorgan Hospital. As I said below, I am still waiting for a reply from Helen Mary after I wrote to her some months ago asking for an apology for the leaflet circulated by Plaid in the Rhondda last year which made that suggestion.